Transaction
bd73b5df94de69ab29d6e8bf048017a00b601a7c7708c1c25344c75159f75e44
Timestamp (utc)
2021-09-11 14:37:53
Fee Paid
0.00001002 BSV
(0.00013934 BSV
- 0.00012932 BSV
)Fee Rate
250.1 sat/KB
Version
1
Confirmations
229,298
Size Stats
4,005 B
1 Input
Total Input:
0.00013934 BSV
3 Outputs
Total Output:
0.00012932 BSV
- jôÏ38 text/markdownM| [Larger version](https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3QeNBS0WnSI/YTy3NALL--I/AAAAAAAAXn4/lG0U9XLCitExem6qeZPDWNDuYunoohsVgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1540/slopechart_%2524BTC%2B%252851%2529.jpg) *This article is solely about market psychology and not an fundamental merits of BTC. Originally posted on Bitpost using BSV. * I watch BTC as the main gauge for the cryptocurrency market. Along with some of the highly speculative stocks such as Tesla (TSLA) and the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), BTC topped in February. I only have a sample size of one, but back in 2000 a similar scenario played out with the dotcom stocks. The high-flyers sold off in March while the rest of the market went sideways into September. The S&P 500 Index was only 1.5 percent below its March 2000 high on September 5. As long as BTC and stocks such as Tesla, and funds that are concentrated in high-growth, speculative stocks such as ARKK are below their highs, it throws the continuation of the bull market into question. Another characteristic of late-stage bull markets is the dash for trash. Micro-caps, OTCBB and penny stocks soared at the end of the 1990s bull market. In crypto, there are altcoins and appropriately named shitcoins. Doge coin peaked in May, three months after BTC. Today, various altcoins are pulling capital away from BTC. NFTs are exploding in price. Speculators are trying to relive the speculative frenzy in other assets, but as long as BTC trades below its high, it signals the party may already be ending. This is not a bullish sign. The bull market cannot be carried by anything other than BTC. The narrative around BTC is that it is digital gold, the Schelling Point for crypto, it has the highest market cap and highest price. If BTC loses this status, a new horse won't carry the market higher. Instead, a fundamental critique of crypto, that there is unlimited supply and no one can be sure which coin will be the winner, will be proven correct (at least for a time). BTC's valuation rests upon a circular logic not unlike the dotcom stocks or Tesla's. At a certain point, price became everything. A rising price creates confidence. A falling price destroys all confidence. For the long-term, again only speaking in terms of market psychology, BTC could theoretically remain the leading cryptocurrency as long as its price and market cap dominate. If the whole market falls 99%, but BTC only falls 98%, it becomes stronger. That would strengthen its claim to being digital gold, of having difficult to displace network effects. If instead is it supplanted, then a new coin will lead the new bull market in the years ahead, not unlike how 1990s market darlings Cisco, Dell and Microsoft were replaced in the 2010s by Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon. If BTC hasn't topped, it should turn higher before or after testing the $42,000 area, the red horiontal line in the chart above. If it goes through, there are various support levels below that will offer support for traders, but my working assumption will be that the top is in. A bull market is like a rising tide. All the boats are lifted. The end stage of a bull market is like musical chairs as various assets are removed from the game. If BTC has topped, then cryptocurrency speculation turned into a game of musicals chairs back in February. |$2Kbitpostarticletitle BTC or Bust for This Bull Market|Ðoptsenc0pub1https://whatsonchain.com/tx/bd73b5df94de69ab29d6e8bf048017a00b601a7c7708c1c25344c75159f75e44