Transaction

j"1LAnZuoQdcKCkpDBKQMCgziGMoPC4VQUckMÖ<div class="post"><div class="quoteheader"><a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=43.msg1371#msg1371">Quote from: lachesis on June 05, 2010, 03:28:29 PM</a></div><div class="quote">I thought about that. I don't know if 0.5 is valid or not. I'll continue to take observations. I wonder if it writes to the debug log when it has success.<br/></div>Use a value of 1, not 0.5.&nbsp; Suppose max=100 and target=10, then 10 out of every 100 hashes will be at or below the target, so your success rate will be 10% NOT 5%.<br/><br/>At the moment target/max ~= 1.5x10^-11 (target~=0x000000000f, which is 36 zeros, so you basically need to throw a dice with 2^36=69 billion sides, and wait until you get a 1), and you're doing 1 million x 86400 = 86.4 billion hashes per day, so you can expect slightly more than one success per day.<br/><br/>It's VERY important to realise that this is the AVERAGE bitcoin creation time, and will only be valid over periods longer than about a week or so.&nbsp; Because a success event is completely random (I hope, otherwise the hash function is probably not secure and someone will eventually crack it, and therefore bitcoin!), the interval between one success and the next will follow a Poisson distribution with n=0, i.e. an exponential (see wikipedia).&nbsp; Therefore, with an average rate of, say, 1 success per day, you can expect that roughly 10% of the time, you'll have to wait 2¼ days or more, 1% of the time 4½ days, 0.1% 7 days and so on.</div> text/html